8
Wave Garden
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 28
Sha Tin · Tropicbird Handicap · 6f
#12
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 10.7 /10 (raw 10.6)
Highest class: BHA38
Recent avg: C3.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Sha Tin | BHA38 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Sha Tin | BHA40 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-01-07 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 10-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength2%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 19/11/2025 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 9% | -0.07 |
| 10/12/2025 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/01/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 11/02/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 11/03/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 12/04/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 09/05/2026 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 01/07/2026 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |