5
Aeris Nova
6yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 91
Sha Tin · Magpie Handicap · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: BHA66
Recent avg: C8.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Sha Tin | BHA85 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Sha Tin | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Sha Tin | BHA85 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Sha Tin | BHA81 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-16 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 6-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength19%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 08/06/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 05/07/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 16/07/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 55% | -0.19 |
| 12/10/2025 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 09/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.45 |
| 15/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 85% | +0.08 |
| 14/12/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 01/01/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 55% | -0.06 |