10
Geneva
6yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 81
Sha Tin · Magpie Handicap · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
76%
Place Prob
55%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | BHA74 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA74 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Sha Tin | BHA74 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-05-25 | Sha Tin | BHA74 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-04-27 | Sha Tin | BHA74 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/12/2024 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 62% | -0.07 |
| 15/03/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 06/04/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 27/04/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 55% | -0.30 |
| 25/05/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 69% | +0.32 |
| 01/03/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 29/03/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 92% | +0.34 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 20/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 73% | +0.20 |