2
Mugen
9yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 93
Sha Tin · Magpie Handicap · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Sha Tin | BHA94 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Sha Tin | BHA94 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | BHA94 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Sha Tin | BHA88 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Sha Tin | BHA90 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Sha Tin | BHA90 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength56%
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 25/01/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 14/02/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 01/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 22/03/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 06/04/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 26/04/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 23% | +0.07 |
| 24/05/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |