4
Sky Trust
6yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 93
Sha Tin · Magpie Handicap · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C9.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Sha Tin | BHA95 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA97 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Sha Tin | BHA98 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA98 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sha Tin | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 14-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -11.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 73% | +0.67 |
| 11/01/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 54% | +0.38 |
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 08/03/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 29/03/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 12/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 64% | +0.11 |
| 20/05/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 55% | -0.11 |
| 31/05/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 11% | -0.36 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |