13
Son Pak Fu
8yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 85
Sha Tin · Magpie Handicap · 6f
#13
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Sha Tin | BHA84 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength64%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 14/01/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |
| 04/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 01/03/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 18/03/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 56% | +0.13 |
| 29/04/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 13/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 91% | +0.28 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 15/07/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 30% | -0.07 |