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3

Aeroinvincible

6yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 75

Sha Tin · Kestrel Handicap · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

15/4

Win Prob

18%

Place Prob

24%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: BHA51
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Happy Valley 10/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 1m Gd 12910/12C?C0 @ Happy Valley 07/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 1m Gd 128BHA51 @ Sha Tin 25/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 51 · 7f GF 126 · beat its mark25/01/2026 · OR 51 par25/0151OR 51C0 @ Sha Tin 19/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 7f Gd 128BHA60 @ Sha Tin 22/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 60 · 7f GF 135 · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 60 par22/0360OR 60BHA66 @ Sha Tin 26/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 66 · 7f GF 123 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 66 parBHA66 @ Sha Tin 31/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 66 · 7f Gd 122 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 66 par31/0566OR 66BHA73 @ Sha Tin 27/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 73 · 7f Gd 133 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 73 parBHA75 @ Sha Tin 06/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 75 · 7f GF 131 · below its mark06/09/2026 · OR 75 par6/0975OR 75projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06Sha TinBHA754th4th0
2026-06-27Sha TinBHA732nd2nd0
2026-05-31Sha TinBHA661st1st0
2026-04-26Sha TinBHA664th4th0
2026-03-22Sha TinBHA601st1st0
2026-02-19Sha Tin?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/1219/0231/056/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/12/20256th4/179%55%-0.24
07/01/20266th9/153%55%+0.02
25/01/20262nd6/168%92%+0.24
19/02/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
22/03/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
26/04/20264th4/179%77%-0.02
31/05/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
27/06/20262nd8/158%92%+0.34
06/09/20264th4/179%70%-0.09