4
Beauty Crescent
6yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 74
Sha Tin · Kestrel Handicap · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 11.3 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | BHA72 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sha Tin | BHA75 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sha Tin | BHA77 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Sha Tin | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Sha Tin | BHA80 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Sha Tin | BHA81 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength63%
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 09/11/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 77% | +0.03 |
| 14/12/2025 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 8% | -0.19 |
| 11/01/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 01/02/2026 | 14th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 22/02/2026 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/05/2026 | 14th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/06/2026 | 14th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/09/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |