6
Circuit Champion
5yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 73
Sha Tin · Kestrel Handicap · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | BHA73 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA71 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA71 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Sha Tin | BHA63 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Sha Tin | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-18 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1640% of fieldRange 5-16 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
Delivery trend -19.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 19/02/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 85% | -0.07 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 85% | -0.09 |
| 06/09/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |