14
Dragon Joy
6yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 62
Sha Tin · Kestrel Handicap · 7f
#12
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: BHA51
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | Sha Tin | BHA66 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Sha Tin | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Sha Tin | BHA67 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-08 | Sha Tin | BHA67 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-05-21 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-04-06 | Sha Tin | BHA70 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1620% of fieldRange 1-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength38%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/01/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 16/02/2025 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 46% | -0.09 |
| 09/03/2025 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 15% | -0.00 |
| 06/04/2025 | 14th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 21/05/2025 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 08/06/2025 | 13th | 7/2 | 82% | 8% | -0.74 |
| 28/09/2025 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 26/10/2025 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 14/12/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 62% | +0.25 |