10
Forza Toro
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 66
Sha Tin · Kestrel Handicap · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: BHA56
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | BHA58 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA58 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Sha Tin | BHA56 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Sha Tin | BHA58 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-25 | Sha Tin | BHA59 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1627% of fieldRange 6-16 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 12th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/2025 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 07/12/2025 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 62% | +0.19 |
| 18/01/2026 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 23% | -0.30 |
| 25/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 85% | +0.43 |
| 04/02/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 82% | -0.02 |
| 22/03/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 62% | -0.20 |
| 12/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 92% | +0.13 |
| 17/05/2026 | 5th | 5/4 | 93% | 69% | -0.24 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |