1
Lucky Sam Gor
5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 79
Sha Tin · Kestrel Handicap · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: BHA45
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | BHA79 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sha Tin | BHA79 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA75 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | BHA76 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA76 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1680% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength62%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 14/02/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 77% | -0.11 |
| 01/03/2026 | 13th | 20/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 29/03/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 70% | +0.17 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 69% | +0.17 |
| 31/05/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.45 |
| 06/09/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |