9
Northern Fire Ball
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 67
Sha Tin · Kestrel Handicap · 7f
#16
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Happy Valley | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Sha Tin | BHA60 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA60 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 160% of fieldRange 9-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength13%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 16th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/01/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 36% | +0.21 |
| 08/02/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 73% | +0.67 |
| 25/02/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 11/03/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.04 |
| 29/03/2026 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 15% | -0.11 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 10/06/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 08/07/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 09/09/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |