IvyArcIvyArc
11

Prime Success

3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 66

Sha Tin · Kestrel Handicap · 7f

#6

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chester 03/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 7f127y Goo 1333/0842 @ Chester 30/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 7f127y Goo 13630/0822 @ York 11/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 83 · 7f192y Gd 125 · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 83 par11/102OR 83BHA67 @ Sha Tin 21/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 67 · 7f Gd 122 · below its mark21/06/2026 · OR 67 par21/0667OR 67projClass-projected finish: 7th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-21Sha TinBHA678th8th0
2025-10-11York21st1st0
2025-08-30Chester22nd2nd0
2025-08-03Chester41st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0830/0811/1021/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1667% of fieldRange 5-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength52%

Delivery trend +13.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/08/20251st5/493%100%+0.07
30/08/20252nd7/282%83%+0.02
11/10/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
21/06/20268th66/10%46%+0.46