5
Thunder Blaze
4yo Colt · 9-4 · OR 74
Sha Tin · Kestrel Handicap · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class: BHA68
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Sha Tin | BHA68 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Sha Tin | BHA70 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Sha Tin | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-07-10 | Leopardstown | BHA89 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-06-25 | Naas | BHA89 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-13 | Fairyhouse | BHA87 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1633% of fieldRange 2-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength41%
Delivery trend +5.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2024 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 15/11/2024 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 90% | -0.05 |
| 13/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 25/06/2025 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 25% | -0.68 |
| 10/07/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 21/01/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 14/02/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 54% | -0.01 |
| 15/03/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |