13
Vulcanus
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 65
Sha Tin · Kestrel Handicap · 7f
#15
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: BHA32
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Sha Tin | BHA65 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sha Tin | BHA65 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Sha Tin | BHA61 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1613% of fieldRange 6-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength25%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 11/03/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/03/2026 | 12th | 100/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 08/04/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 19/04/2026 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 06/05/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 45% | -0.23 |
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 13/06/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 04/07/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |