4
Little Monster
5yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 49
Sha Tin · Peacock Handicap · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: BHA45
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | BHA50 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA51 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Sha Tin | BHA51 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA45 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength73%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 38% | -0.30 |
| 19/02/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 62% | +0.25 |
| 06/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 22/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.04 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 27/06/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 54% | -0.25 |
| 15/07/2026 | 11th | 4/1 | 79% | 9% | -0.70 |
| 13/09/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 69% | +0.64 |