11
Super Dragon
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 43
Sha Tin · Peacock Handicap · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA47 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Sha Tin | BHA49 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Sha Tin | BHA50 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-25 | Sha Tin | BHA51 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Sha Tin | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Sha Tin | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength61%
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2025 | 8th | 11/4 | 86% | 36% | -0.49 |
| 15/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 92% | +0.16 |
| 27/12/2025 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 62% | -0.28 |
| 25/01/2026 | 6th | 13/8 | 91% | 62% | -0.30 |
| 12/04/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 69% | +0.43 |
| 09/05/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.35 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 69% | -0.07 |