9
Always Fluke
7yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 34
Sha Tin · Woodpecker Handicap · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: BHA38
Recent avg: C3.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA38 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sha Tin | BHA38 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA40 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sha Tin | BHA40 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Sha Tin | BHA40 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1653% of fieldRange 8-16 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength22%
Delivery trend -8.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 92% | +0.77 |
| 14/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 85% | +0.43 |
| 01/03/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 62% | +0.35 |
| 06/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 92% | +0.34 |
| 03/05/2026 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 31% | -0.30 |
| 17/05/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 55% | -0.06 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 90% | +0.19 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 85% | +0.08 |
| 09/09/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 64% | -0.13 |