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13

Blue Baron

6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 29

Sha Tin · Woodpecker Handicap · 7f

#16

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 7.9)

Highest class: BHA34
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA45 @ Sha Tin 08/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 45 · 5f GF 121 · beat its mark08/06/2025 · OR 45 par8/0645OR 45BHA43 @ Sha Tin 22/06/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 43 · 5f Gd 120 · beat its mark22/06/2025 · OR 43 parBHA41 @ Sha Tin 13/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 41 · 6f Gd 118 · beat its mark13/07/2025 · OR 41 par13/0741OR 41C0 @ Sha Tin 14/09/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 6f GF 120BHA41 @ Sha Tin 04/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 41 · 7f Gd 118 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 41 par4/1041OR 41BHA39 @ Sha Tin 09/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 39 · 7f Gd 134 · beat its mark09/11/2025 · OR 39 parC0 @ Happy Valley 08/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 1298/04C?BHA36 @ Sha Tin 17/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 36 · 6f Goo 127 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 36 parBHA34 @ Sha Tin 04/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 34 · 6f Gd 129 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 34 par4/0734OR 34projClass-projected finish: 13th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-04Sha TinBHA348th8th0
2026-05-17Sha TinBHA367th7th0
2026-04-08Happy Valley?5th5th0
2025-11-09Sha TinBHA399th9th0
2025-10-04Sha TinBHA418th8th0
2025-09-14Sha Tin?12th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0614/098/044/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 160% of fieldRange 14-16 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -10.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 16th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/06/20254th80/10%77%+0.77
22/06/202510th16/116%31%+0.15
13/07/20252nd50/10%92%+0.92
14/09/202512th12/137%15%-0.21
04/10/20258th40/10%46%+0.46
09/11/20259th8/158%33%-0.25
08/04/20265th12/137%64%+0.27
17/05/20267th10/147%45%-0.02
04/07/20268th6/168%36%-0.32