11
Draco
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 32
Sha Tin · Woodpecker Handicap · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
31%
Place Prob
40%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: BHA26
Recent avg: C2.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | BHA26 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sha Tin | BHA30 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA30 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sha Tin | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength74%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 69% | +0.11 |
| 04/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 85% | +0.11 |
| 12/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 82% | -0.05 |
| 26/11/2025 | 8th | 11/4 | 86% | 36% | -0.49 |
| 01/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 85% | +0.08 |
| 08/03/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 46% | -0.33 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 77% | +0.19 |
| 12/07/2026 | 9th | 7/2 | 82% | 38% | -0.43 |
| 13/09/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |