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3

Fortune Supernova

5yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 37

Sha Tin · Woodpecker Handicap · 7f

#10

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 9.2)

Highest class: BHA43
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA58 @ Sha Tin 04/10/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 58 · 7f Gd 135 · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 58 par4/1058OR 58BHA56 @ Sha Tin 14/12/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 56 · 6f Gd 131 · below its mark14/12/2025 · OR 56 parC0 @ Happy Valley 07/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 1317/01C?C0 @ Happy Valley 04/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 131C0 @ Happy Valley 25/02/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 12525/02C?C0 @ Happy Valley 18/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 123BHA45 @ Sha Tin 13/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 45 · 6f Yie 121 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 45 par13/0645OR 45BHA43 @ Sha Tin 04/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 43 · 6f Gd 119 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 43 parC0 @ Happy Valley 09/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 1349/09C?projClass-projected finish: 15th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Happy Valley?9th9th0
2026-07-04Sha TinBHA436th6th0
2026-06-13Sha TinBHA457th7th0
2026-03-18Happy Valley?12th12th0
2026-02-25Happy Valley?11th11th0
2026-02-04Happy Valley?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/104/0213/069/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1667% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/202514th40/10%0%0.00
14/12/202514th50/10%0%0.00
07/01/202610th40/10%18%+0.18
04/02/20265th40/10%64%+0.64
25/02/202611th11/271%9%-0.62
18/03/202612th18/15%0%-0.05
13/06/20267th25/10%45%+0.45
04/07/20266th28/10%55%+0.55
09/09/20269th18/15%27%+0.22