16
Sea Diamond
5yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 39
Sha Tin · Woodpecker Handicap · 7f
#14
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 8.0)
Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | BHA40 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA44 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA46 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Sha Tin | BHA50 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Sha Tin | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1613% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength56%
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 73% | +0.31 |
| 22/02/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 06/04/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 29/04/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/05/2026 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 21/06/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 13/09/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 62% | +0.56 |