IvyArcIvyArc
15

Star Satyr

5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 40

Sha Tin · Woodpecker Handicap · 7f

#3

Rank

Odds

SP

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 8.2)

Highest class: BHA42
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA60 @ Sha Tin 01/02/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 60 · 7f Gd 135 · below its mark01/02/2026 · OR 60 par1/0260OR 60C0 @ Sha Tin 22/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR - · 7f Gd 133BHA56 @ Sha Tin 22/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 56 · 7f GF 131 · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 56 par22/0356OR 56BHA54 @ Sha Tin 12/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 54 · 7f Gd 129 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 54 parBHA52 @ Sha Tin 09/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 52 · 7f Goo 129 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 52 par9/0552OR 52BHA50 @ Sha Tin 07/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 50 · 7f Gd 127 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 50 parBHA48 @ Sha Tin 27/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 48 · 7f Gd 123 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 48 par27/0648OR 48C0 @ Happy Valley 15/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 6f Goo 121BHA42 @ Sha Tin 06/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 42 · 7f GF 117 · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 42 par6/0942OR 42projClass-projected finish: 12th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06Sha TinBHA427th7th0
2026-07-15Happy Valley?6th6th0
2026-06-27Sha TinBHA4810th10th0
2026-06-07Sha TinBHA5013th13th0
2026-05-09Sha TinBHA524th4th0
2026-04-12Sha TinBHA5410th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0212/0427/066/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1687% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength65%

Delivery trend +8.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/02/202611th15/890%23%-0.67
22/02/20266th6/168%62%-0.07
22/03/202611th33/10%23%+0.23
12/04/202610th25/10%31%+0.31
09/05/20264th16/116%77%+0.61
07/06/202613th9/153%8%-0.45
27/06/202610th28/10%31%+0.31
15/07/20266th14/126%55%+0.28
06/09/20267th40/10%54%+0.54