7
Swagger Bro
6yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 36
Sha Tin · Woodpecker Handicap · 7f
#13
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: BHA46
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Sha Tin | BHA46 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Sha Tin | BHA48 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1633% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/12/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 73% | +0.07 |
| 04/01/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 55% | -0.09 |
| 21/01/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 14/02/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 46% | +0.30 |
| 01/03/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 62% | +0.56 |
| 18/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 82% | +0.19 |
| 01/04/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 09/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 64% | +0.11 |