16
Casa Primo
4yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 41
Sha Tin · Parrot Handicap · 5f
#14
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: BHA45
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Sha Tin | BHA45 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA47 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA49 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Sha Tin | BHA50 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sha Tin | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1620% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength47%
Delivery trend -6.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 29/03/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 69% | +0.64 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 31/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 62% | +0.46 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 69% | +0.53 |
| 12/07/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 46% | +0.30 |