6
Bright Mortar
5yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 54
Sha Tin · Swallow Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
23%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | BHA53 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Sha Tin | BHA53 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Sha Tin | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Sha Tin | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-05 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +10.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 05/11/2025 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 15/11/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 04/01/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 91% | +0.75 |
| 13/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 92% | +0.50 |