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4

Natural High

6yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 57

Sha Tin · Swallow Handicap · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength21%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 7.2)

Highest class: BHA50
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA59 @ Sha Tin 20/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 59 · 6f Gd 134 · beat its mark20/04/2025 · OR 59 par20/0459OR 59BHA59 @ Sha Tin 18/05/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 59 · 6f Gd 134 · below its mark18/05/2025 · OR 59 parC0 @ Happy Valley 25/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 13325/06C?BHA56 @ Sha Tin 08/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 56 · 6f Std 131 · beat its mark08/02/2026 · OR 56 parC0 @ Sha Tin 08/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 6f Std 1308/03C?C0 @ Sha Tin 01/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 127C0 @ Sha Tin 06/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 6f Slo 1346/05C?C0 @ Happy Valley 27/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 6f 134BHA58 @ Sha Tin 04/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 58 · 6f Std 133 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 58 par4/0758OR 58projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-04Sha TinBHA589th9th0
2026-05-27Happy Valley?10th10th0
2026-05-06Sha Tin?9th9th0
2026-04-01Sha Tin?1st1st0
2026-03-08Sha Tin?5th5th0
2026-02-08Sha TinBHA567th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/048/026/054/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength68%

Delivery trend +2.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/04/20254th17/255%73%+0.17
18/05/202511th7/163%9%-0.54
25/06/20257th28/10%45%+0.45
08/02/20267th16/116%45%+0.30
08/03/20265th12/137%64%+0.27
01/04/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
06/05/20269th15/261%27%-0.33
27/05/202610th22/10%18%+0.18
04/07/20269th22/10%27%+0.27