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10

Noble Deluxe

5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 46

Sha Tin · Swallow Handicap · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

76%

Place Prob

60%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: BHA34
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Sha Tin 01/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR - · 6f Gd 1241/01C?C0 @ Sha Tin 21/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 6f 122C0 @ Sha Tin 19/02/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR - · 6f Gd 13019/02C?C0 @ Happy Valley 04/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR - · 6f Goo 129C0 @ Sha Tin 01/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 1301/04C?BHA34 @ Sha Tin 19/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 34 · 6f Gd 130 · beat its mark19/04/2026 · OR 34 parC0 @ Sha Tin 06/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 6f Slo 1356/05C?C0 @ Happy Valley 27/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 6f 135BHA40 @ Sha Tin 04/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 40 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 40 par4/0740OR 40projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-04Sha TinBHA401st1st0
2026-05-27Happy Valley?10th10th0
2026-05-06Sha Tin?10th10th0
2026-04-19Sha TinBHA341st1st0
2026-04-01Sha Tin?3rd3rd0
2026-03-04Happy Valley?12th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/014/036/054/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength65%

Delivery trend +3.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/01/202610th5/174%31%-0.43
21/01/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
19/02/202613th6/168%8%-0.61
04/03/202612th22/10%0%0.00
01/04/20263rd12/137%82%+0.45
19/04/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
06/05/202610th12/137%18%-0.19
27/05/202610th15/261%18%-0.42
04/07/20261st10/147%100%+0.53