3
Circuit Fiery
7yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 57
Sha Tin · Tailorbird Handicap · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: BHA37
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA58 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sha Tin | BHA56 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA56 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Sha Tin | BHA48 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Sha Tin | BHA48 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1660% of fieldRange 4-14 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength47%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/2025 | 4th | 8/11 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 20/12/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 11/01/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 85% | +0.03 |
| 01/02/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.45 |
| 01/03/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 29/03/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 85% | +0.00 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 92% | +0.02 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 69% | +0.43 |
| 01/07/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 23% | -0.24 |