1
Etalon Or
5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 59
Sha Tin · Tailorbird Handicap · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
62%
Place Prob
40%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | BHA58 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Sha Tin | BHA60 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Sha Tin | BHA60 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Sha Tin | BHA54 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-13 | Sha Tin | BHA54 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength96%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 85% | +0.06 |
| 04/05/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 62% | -0.23 |
| 08/06/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 92% | -0.01 |
| 13/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 92% | +0.04 |
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 09/11/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 77% | +0.01 |
| 07/12/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 85% | +0.27 |
| 01/01/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 54% | -0.25 |
| 13/09/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 92% | +0.34 |