IvyArcIvyArc
4

Harold Win

6yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 55

Sha Tin · Tailorbird Handicap · 7f

#2

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

23%

Place Prob

24%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA67 @ Sha Tin 14/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 67 · 6f GF 126 · below its mark14/02/2026 · OR 67 par14/0267OR 67C0 @ Sha Tin 22/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR - · 7f Gd 117C0 @ Sha Tin 08/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR - · 7f Gd 1218/03C?BHA63 @ Sha Tin 06/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 63 · 7f Gd 121 · beat its mark06/04/2026 · OR 63 parBHA61 @ Sha Tin 26/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 61 · 7f GF 118 · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 61 par26/0461OR 61BHA59 @ Sha Tin 24/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 59 · 7f Gd 134 · beat its mark24/05/2026 · OR 59 parBHA57 @ Sha Tin 27/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 57 · 7f Gd 132 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 57 par27/0657OR 57BHA58 @ Sha Tin 12/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 58 · 7f GF 135 · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 58 parBHA56 @ Sha Tin 06/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 56 · 6f GF 131 · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 56 par6/0956OR 56projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06Sha TinBHA565th5th0
2026-07-12Sha TinBHA583rd3rd0
2026-06-27Sha TinBHA572nd2nd0
2026-05-24Sha TinBHA594th4th0
2026-04-26Sha TinBHA6110th10th0
2026-04-06Sha TinBHA634th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/026/0427/066/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1687% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength66%

Delivery trend -4.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/02/20265th7/163%60%-0.03
22/02/20263rd33/10%85%+0.85
08/03/20265th11/142%69%+0.27
06/04/20264th11/271%67%-0.04
26/04/202610th20/10%31%+0.31
24/05/20264th11/486%77%-0.09
27/06/20262nd10/147%92%+0.45
12/07/20263rd5/174%85%+0.11
06/09/20265th5/287%69%-0.18