12
Hot Air Ballon
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 48
Sha Tin · Tailorbird Handicap · 7f
#11
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: BHA50
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Sha Tin | BHA50 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Sha Tin | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-07-05 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1673% of fieldRange 1-15 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength99%
Delivery trend +6.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 14/09/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 69% | +0.32 |
| 21/06/2026 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 31% | -0.38 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |