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8

Lucky Man

6yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 51

Sha Tin · Tailorbird Handicap · 7f

#5

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class: BHA38
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA47 @ Sha Tin 23/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 47 · 7f Gd 123 · beat its mark23/11/2025 · OR 47 par23/1147OR 47C0 @ Happy Valley 17/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 125C0 @ Sha Tin 04/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 7f Gd 1244/01C?BHA47 @ Sha Tin 11/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 47 · 7f GF 122 · beat its mark11/01/2026 · OR 47 parC0 @ Happy Valley 11/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 6f Gd 12011/02C?BHA43 @ Sha Tin 06/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 43 · 7f Gd 118 · beat its mark06/04/2026 · OR 43 parBHA50 @ Sha Tin 09/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 50 · 7f Goo 127 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 50 par9/0550OR 50BHA51 @ Sha Tin 31/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 51 · 7f Gd 126 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 51 parBHA51 @ Sha Tin 12/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 51 · 7f GF 128 · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 51 par12/0751OR 51projClass-projected finish: 9th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-12Sha TinBHA5110th10th0
2026-05-31Sha TinBHA5111th11th0
2026-05-09Sha TinBHA502nd2nd0
2026-04-06Sha TinBHA431st1st0
2026-02-11Happy Valley?8th8th0
2026-01-11Sha TinBHA4711th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/1111/019/0512/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1667% of fieldRange 1-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength57%

Delivery trend -4.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/11/20252nd8/158%92%+0.34
17/12/20255th12/137%64%+0.27
04/01/202611th13/266%23%-0.43
11/01/202611th16/116%23%+0.07
11/02/20268th15/261%30%-0.31
06/04/20261st18/15%100%+0.95
09/05/20262nd5/174%92%+0.19
31/05/202611th6/168%23%-0.45
12/07/202610th8/158%31%-0.27