16
Polar Patch
4yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 44
Sha Tin · Tailorbird Handicap · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Sha Tin | BHA47 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sha Tin | BHA49 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Sha Tin | BHA50 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Sha Tin | BHA50 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1653% of fieldRange 1-15 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength61%
Delivery trend -6.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 15% | -0.00 |
| 19/04/2026 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 80/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 85% | +0.24 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 77% | +0.14 |
| 12/07/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.25 |