1
Aurora Patch
6yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 77
Sha Tin · Hwamei Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
42%
Place Prob
38%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | BHA77 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sha Tin | BHA79 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sha Tin | BHA80 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Sha Tin | BHA80 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength97%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 64% | -0.21 |
| 08/02/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 08/03/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 45% | -0.31 |
| 01/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.08 |
| 13/06/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 45% | -0.20 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 69% | +0.27 |
| 13/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 85% | +0.32 |