8
Bustling City
4yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 62
Sha Tin · Hwamei Handicap · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/6
Win Prob
51%
Place Prob
42%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: BHA50
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA51 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA51 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Sha Tin | BHA50 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +16.9% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/2026 | 9th | 4/9 | 98% | 38% | -0.59 |
| 25/02/2026 | 10th | 7/2 | 82% | 18% | -0.63 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 85% | +0.43 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 92% | +0.21 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 92% | +0.03 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |