7
Hott Shott
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 64
Sha Tin · Hwamei Handicap · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Sha Tin | BHA70 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Sha Tin | BHA70 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-06-19 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-05-08 | Chester | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-04-03 | Chelmsford City | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 8-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength10%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2024 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 16/10/2024 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 26/02/2025 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 03/04/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 08/05/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 19/06/2025 | 14th | 100/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 11/01/2026 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/03/2026 | 10th | 125/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 20/05/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |