2
Mighty Commander
6yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 74
Sha Tin · Hwamei Handicap · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: BHA57
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | BHA75 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sha Tin | BHA75 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | BHA69 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 3-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength29%
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.02 |
| 14/01/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 28/01/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 73% | +0.15 |
| 11/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 82% | +0.06 |
| 08/04/2026 | 8th | 13/8 | 91% | 36% | -0.55 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 24/06/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 13/09/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |