IvyArcIvyArc
6

Notthesillyone

6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 66

Sha Tin · Hwamei Handicap · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Sha Tin 30/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 6f Std 13430/10C?BHA46 @ Sha Tin 07/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 46 · 6f Std 122 · beat its mark07/12/2025 · OR 46 parC0 @ Sha Tin 04/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 6f Std 1274/01C?BHA52 @ Sha Tin 08/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 52 · 6f Std 127 · beat its mark08/02/2026 · OR 52 parC0 @ Happy Valley 18/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 5f Gd 12818/03C?C0 @ Sha Tin 01/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 134C0 @ Sha Tin 06/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 6f Slo 1356/05C?BHA66 @ Sha Tin 13/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 66 · 6f Std 116 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 66 parC0 @ Happy Valley 16/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 5f Gd 12216/09C?projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Happy Valley?8th8th0
2026-06-13Sha TinBHA669th9th0
2026-05-06Sha Tin?1st1st0
2026-04-01Sha Tin?9th9th0
2026-03-18Happy Valley?1st1st0
2026-02-08Sha TinBHA527th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/108/026/0516/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength65%

Delivery trend +4.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/10/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
07/12/20251st7/163%100%+0.37
04/01/202610th13/891%18%-0.73
08/02/20267th9/153%45%-0.07
18/03/20261st25/10%100%+1.00
01/04/20269th17/255%27%-0.28
06/05/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
13/06/20269th16/116%27%+0.11
16/09/20268th18/15%36%+0.31