12
Speedy Smartie
7yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 60
Sha Tin · Hwamei Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: BHA27
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Sha Tin | BHA60 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA59 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Sha Tin | BHA56 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Sha Tin | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength55%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 14/12/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 77% | +0.30 |
| 01/01/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 92% | +0.08 |
| 21/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 08/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 91% | -0.01 |
| 01/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 91% | +0.03 |
| 22/04/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 82% | +0.27 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.45 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 73% | +0.07 |