5
Copartner Prance
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 109
Sha Tin · The Celebration Cup (Handicap) - Group 3 · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA112 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA111 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Sha Tin | BHA114 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Sha Tin | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength73%
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 2nd | 66/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 19/10/2025 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 23/11/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 14/12/2025 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/02/2026 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 26/04/2026 | 9th | 100/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 21/06/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 66/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |