1
Galaxy Patch
7yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 120
Sha Tin · The Celebration Cup (Handicap) - Group 3 · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA118 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Sha Tin | BHA121 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-25 | Sha Tin | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Sha Tin | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 19/10/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 62% | +0.09 |
| 23/11/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 14/12/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 69% | -0.07 |
| 25/01/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 22/02/2026 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 06/04/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 77% | +0.24 |
| 26/04/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 89% | +0.84 |