3
Invincible Ibis
5yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 112
Sha Tin · The Celebration Cup (Handicap) - Group 3 · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
62%
Place Prob
48%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 2.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Sha Tin | BHA83 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Sha Tin | BHA83 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Sha Tin | BHA83 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Sha Tin | BHA74 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2025 | 3rd | 4/5 | 96% | 85% | -0.11 |
| 01/10/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 23/11/2025 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 20/12/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 11/01/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 01/02/2026 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 62% | -0.29 |
| 01/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.45 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 77% | +0.16 |