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6

Little Paradise

5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 109

Sha Tin · The Celebration Cup (Handicap) - Group 3 · 7f

#3

Rank

Odds

4/5

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA70 @ Sha Tin 28/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 70 · 6f Slo 125 · beat its mark28/09/2025 · OR 70 par28/0970OR 70BHA78 @ Sha Tin 09/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 78 · 7f Gd 133 · below its mark09/11/2025 · OR 78 parBHA80 @ Sha Tin 07/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 80 · 7f Gd 135 · beat its mark07/12/2025 · OR 80 par7/1280OR 80BHA87 @ Sha Tin 11/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 87 · 7f GF 122 · beat its mark11/01/2026 · OR 87 parC0 @ Sha Tin 01/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 87 · 1m Gd 126 · beat its mark01/02/2026 · OR 87 par1/02C?OR 87BHA87 @ Sha Tin 01/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 87 · 1m1f Gd 126 · below its mark01/03/2026 · OR 87 parBHA87 @ Sha Tin 22/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 87 · 1m2f GF 126 · below its mark22/03/2026 · OR 87 par22/0387OR 87C0 @ Sha Tin 26/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 87 · 1m GF 126 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 87 parBHA103 @ Sha Tin 21/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 103 · 7f Gd 120 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 103 par21/06103OR 103projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-21Sha TinBHA1031st1st0
2026-04-26Sha Tin?10th10th0
2026-03-22Sha TinBHA879th9th0
2026-03-01Sha TinBHA878th8th0
2026-02-01Sha Tin?1st1st0
2026-01-11Sha TinBHA871st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0911/0122/0321/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength66%

Delivery trend -3.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/09/20251st2/999%100%+0.01
09/11/20253rd6/492%85%-0.07
07/12/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
11/01/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
01/02/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
01/03/20268th11/893%46%-0.47
22/03/20269th2/189%38%-0.51
26/04/202610th11/271%31%-0.40
21/06/20261st9/488%100%+0.12