8
Lucky With You
9yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 102
Sha Tin · The Celebration Cup (Handicap) - Group 3 · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA102 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA104 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Sha Tin | BHA105 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength51%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/01/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 14/02/2026 | 11th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 06/04/2026 | 4th | 100/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 64% | +0.58 |
| 31/05/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 22% | -0.44 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 15/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 90% | +0.43 |
| 06/09/2026 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |