4
Patch Of Theta
7yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 111
Sha Tin · The Celebration Cup (Handicap) - Group 3 · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA114 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sha Tin | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Sha Tin | BHA110 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Sha Tin | BHA110 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength22%
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 62% | +0.25 |
| 23/11/2025 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 14/12/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 01/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 01/02/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 22/02/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 08/03/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 06/04/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 21/06/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |