9
Soleil Fighter
6yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 102
Sha Tin · The Celebration Cup (Handicap) - Group 3 · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | BHA102 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sha Tin | BHA102 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sha Tin | BHA96 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sha Tin | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength4%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/02/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 19/02/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 44% | -0.40 |
| 25/02/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 08/03/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 13/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |
| 03/06/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.04 |
| 06/09/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |