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5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 76

Sha Tin · Mesia Handicap · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

81%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.2)

Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA52 @ Sha Tin 20/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 52 · 6f Gd 129 · beat its mark20/12/2025 · OR 52 par20/1252OR 52C0 @ Sha Tin 01/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR - · 6f Gd 128BHA52 @ Sha Tin 18/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 52 · 7f Gd 127 · beat its mark18/01/2026 · OR 52 par18/0152OR 52BHA58 @ Sha Tin 14/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 58 · 7f GF 133 · beat its mark14/02/2026 · OR 58 parBHA65 @ Sha Tin 22/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 65 · 7f GF 123 · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 65 par22/0365OR 65BHA65 @ Sha Tin 12/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 65 · 1m Gd 123 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 65 parBHA72 @ Sha Tin 09/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 72 · 1m Goo 129 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 72 par9/0572OR 72BHA74 @ Sha Tin 31/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 74 · 1m Gd 129 · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 74 parC0 @ Sha Tin 01/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 1m GF 1291/07C?projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-01Sha Tin?2nd2nd0
2026-05-31Sha TinBHA744th4th0
2026-05-09Sha TinBHA722nd2nd0
2026-04-12Sha TinBHA651st1st0
2026-03-22Sha TinBHA653rd3rd0
2026-02-14Sha TinBHA581st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1214/029/051/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 15100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength85%

Delivery trend -2.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/12/20253rd10/147%82%+0.34
01/01/20263rd4/179%85%+0.06
18/01/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
14/02/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
22/03/20263rd7/282%82%+0.00
12/04/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
09/05/20262nd4/179%92%+0.13
31/05/20264th4/179%75%-0.04
01/07/20262nd4/179%92%+0.13