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9

Big Return

6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 65

Sha Tin · Mesia Handicap · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: BHA45
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA49 @ Sha Tin 25/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 49 · 7f GF 124 · beat its mark25/01/2026 · OR 49 par25/0149OR 49C0 @ Sha Tin 22/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR - · 7f Gd 122BHA47 @ Sha Tin 15/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 47 · 7f GF 122 · beat its mark15/03/2026 · OR 47 par15/0347OR 47BHA45 @ Sha Tin 06/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 45 · 1m Gd 124 · beat its mark06/04/2026 · OR 45 parBHA51 @ Sha Tin 26/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 51 · 1m Gd 126 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 51 par26/0451OR 51BHA57 @ Sha Tin 24/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 57 · 1m Gd 133 · beat its mark24/05/2026 · OR 57 parBHA64 @ Sha Tin 13/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 64 · 1m Yie 119 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 64 par13/0664OR 64BHA65 @ Sha Tin 12/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 65 · 1m GF 117 · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 65 parBHA65 @ Sha Tin 13/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 65 · 7f GF 122 · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 65 par13/0965OR 65projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Sha TinBHA657th7th0
2026-07-12Sha TinBHA653rd3rd0
2026-06-13Sha TinBHA642nd2nd0
2026-05-24Sha TinBHA571st1st0
2026-04-26Sha TinBHA511st1st0
2026-04-06Sha TinBHA451st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/016/0413/0613/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1571% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength64%

Delivery trend -4.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/01/20264th33/10%77%+0.77
22/02/20263rd10/147%85%+0.37
15/03/20264th13/266%77%+0.11
06/04/20261st18/15%100%+0.95
26/04/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
24/05/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
13/06/20262nd5/174%92%+0.18
12/07/20263rd4/179%85%+0.06
13/09/20267th20/10%54%+0.54